Jaco – Changing The Math In The Missouri Senate Race

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ST. LOUIS, MO (KPLR) - Elections are about lots of things. They're about ideas. They're about people's enthusiasm for their government. They're about determining a direction for the nation. But mostly elections are about math. Which brings us to the Claire McCaskill versus Todd Akin senate race.

Remember the convention wisdom early last summer? Claire McCaskill was listed by just about every national political blog or publication as the incimbent democratic senator most likely to go down to defeat. She was too close to President Obama in a state that dislikes the president. She was a weak candidate.

Starting in May and running through August 20th there were five statewide polls taken in the senate race. And all of them showed Akin winning. In one poll he lead by 11 points. In a couple of others it was just one point. But the trend was clear. Todd Akin and the other two republicans running in the GOP primary would all beat McCaskill head-to-head.

Then, Akin won the republican primary and he sat down to talk to me on the Jaco Report. His comments about "legitimate rape" and a woman's body naturally preventing pregnancy after a rape changed everything. Before that interview Akin was winning in all the polls. After the interview? Well, there have been 18 polls taken of the Missouri senate race since then.

Of those 18 polls Akin has led in four; in the other 14 McCaskill's ahead. That probably means two things. One, that the Akin interview changed history. And two, the Akin interview changed the math. A seven point swing in the public policy polling and Mason-Dixon polls, an 11 point swing in the Rasmussen poll. Now, that's change you can actually count.

I'm Charles Jaco and that's Jacology.